IRAN SECURITY THREATSRISK 90 — CRISIS — 68,925 docs
UKRAINE CRISISRISK 75 — CRISIS — 26,191 docs
MILITARY POSTURINGRISK 55 — ELEVATED — 6,280 docs
VENEZUELA CRISISRISK 52 — TENSION — 16,507 docs
SANCTIONS EVASIONRISK 53 — DE-ESCALATION — 2,296 docs
OPERATION EPIC FURYDAY 62 — 15 KIA / 400 WIA — 10,000+ BDA TARGETS
IRAN SECURITY THREATSRISK 90 — CRISIS — 68,925 docs
UKRAINE CRISISRISK 75 — CRISIS — 26,191 docs
MILITARY POSTURINGRISK 55 — ELEVATED — 6,280 docs
VENEZUELA CRISISRISK 52 — TENSION — 16,507 docs
SANCTIONS EVASIONRISK 53 — DE-ESCALATION — 2,296 docs
OPERATION EPIC FURYDAY 62 — 15 KIA / 400 WIA — 10,000+ BDA TARGETS
Agentic Open-Source Intelligence Platform

The story
beneath the story.

An agentic OSINT platform that turns the global open-source ecosystem — news outlets, social streams, alt-platforms, government wires, GDELT — into verified claims and ICD 203-compliant intelligence products, on demand, for any narrative you define. Mission-agnostic by design: spin up a new threat vector in minutes, scale to any number of active operations.

Not another news aggregator. The Subplot extracts discrete claims, computes Bayesian confidence from observation count and source-tier authority, models cross-monitor causality with Granger and Hawkes processes, and generates KIQ + Deep Dive + Shift Brief products in seconds. The analyst stays in control. The agentic engine does the heavy lifting.
The Subplot Watch Floor — Operational Intelligence Center
LIVE — 5 MISSIONS · 11 ALERTS
◉ Watch Floor — Operational Intelligence Center
0K+
Documents Indexed
current demo · platform scales without cap
0
Sources Monitored
tier-aware ingestion · extensible to any feed
0
Claims Deduplicated
600 obs re-linked · v60.8 engine
~0s
KIQ Generation
ICD 203-compliant product
The Difference

Drag to compare.

WITHOUT THE SUBPLOT
Manual triage.
Forever behind.
  • Hundreds of tabs, RSS feeds, social streams
  • Same casualty figure repeated 500× as separate facts
  • No causal model — every monitor read in isolation
  • Reports take days to draft, hours to format
  • Confidence is a guess, not a Bayesian posterior
  • Reactive — always learning after the headline
WITH THE SUBPLOT
Verified intelligence.
Always anchored.
  • One workspace, 4,089 outlets, normalized into claims
  • Byte-identical dedup collapses 576 obs into one row
  • Granger + Hawkes detect cross-monitor causality
  • KIQ in 130s, Deep Dive in 246s, Shift Brief on demand
  • Confidence scored from obs count + source tier + provenance
  • Predictive — regime classification + cascade modeling
Why The Subplot

Finished intelligence,
not information overload.

Verified Claims, Not Raw Articles

AI extracts discrete claims with structured who / did / to / where fields, then deduplicates byte-identically across the corpus. The same casualty event mentioned 576 times collapses to one row with 576 observations — not 576 fragmented "facts."

ICD 203-Compliant Products

BLUF, key judgments with HIGH / MODERATE / LOW confidence, sourced evidence excerpts, intelligence gaps, recommended COAs, competing hypotheses. Ready to brief, not process.

Cross-Monitor Causal Inference

Granger causality finds directional drivers between threat domains. Hawkes processes model cascade dynamics. Hidden Markov regimes classify CRISIS / TENSION / DE-ESCALATION. Iran threats and Ukraine crisis show perfect bidirectional coupling — that's not a coincidence, it's a measurement.

Cumulative Casualty Aggregation

No single article says "13 KIA." The aggregator reads ground-combat losses + KC-135 crew + downed aircraft separately and sums them — automatically, on every casualty-shaped query. The BLUF anchors on 15 KIA / 400 WIA, not on the dominant single-event claim.

KIQ: Iran Security Threats Intelligence Product
CRITICAL
◉ KIQ — 13 KIA / 381 WIA · 5,000 Targets Struck
Platform Capabilities

Six integrated intelligence
capabilities. One workspace.

Multi-source ingestion, claims-engine deduplication, ICD 203-compliant products, cross-monitor causal analysis, entity-network reasoning. Every tool an analyst needs to move from raw signal to finished intelligence — without leaving the platform.

Ingestion
Multi-Source Collection
Continuous fan-out across news outlets, social streams, GDELT, EventRegistry, 4chan, and Telegram. Tier-aware scoring (T1 wires + T2 outlets) with automated deduplication and metadata enrichment.
Verification
Claims Engine v60.x
Byte-identical deduplication, case-aware entity matching, observation-count Bayesian posteriors. Cumulative casualty aggregation across distinct events. Status tracking through emergence → confirmed / contested / escalated.
Geospatial
SIGACT Workspace
Mapbox-rendered geocoded claims with action-type color coding (US / Iran / Regional / Other). Origin & spread analysis: Social→MSM, Official→Social, Lateral. Live SIGACT mode for last-72h windows.
Products
KIQ + Deep Dive + Shift Brief
Natural-language KIQ produces ICD 203-compliant intelligence in ~130 seconds. Deep Dive expands with capabilities, key actors, historical context, competing hypotheses in ~246 seconds. Daily Shift Brief covers all monitors with cross-correlation findings.
Causal
Granger + Hawkes + HMM
Granger causality detects directional drivers across threat domains. Hawkes processes model self- and cross-exciting cascades. Hidden Markov regimes classify CRISIS / TENSION / DE-ESCALATION with confidence intervals.
Reasoning
Entity Network + AI Analysis
4,922 entities, 18,647 connections across states, organizations, people, locations, weapons, policies. Click any entity to surface mention timeline; ask the AI assistant to explain fault lines, alliances, and proxy relationships in plain English.
How It Works

From raw signal to
finished intelligence.

1
Define a Mission Vector
Spin up a monitor for any geopolitical topic, narrative campaign, or operational theater. Multi-query LLM-planned ingestion begins from thousands of sources immediately.
2
Engine Runs 24/7
Continuous claims extraction, dedup, sentiment classification, geocoding, entity tagging, regime detection, and cross-monitor causality computation — surfacing what changed and why it matters.
3
Generate Intelligence
Ask any KIQ in natural language, regenerate the daily Shift Brief, or pull a Deep Dive for any monitor. Sourced, confidence-scored, ICD 203-formatted, ready to brief.
Operation Epic Fury — Daily Brief

A standing intelligence product,
auto-generated every shift.

Day 62 metrics in a single open-source pane: 15 KIA / 400 WIA cumulative casualty floor, 10,000+ BDA targets, 90 critical risk score, 4,089 sources monitored, 62% hostile article tone. Auto-refreshed every 10 minutes from the live claims engine.

Operation Epic Fury — Last 72 Hours
DAY 62
◉ SIGACT — Last 72 Hours · 6 Geocoded Claims
Operation Epic Fury — All Time
2,000 CLAIMS
◉ Top Claims · Iran Regional Escalation · 10 Countries
CONFLICT RISK ASSESSMENT: Adjusted Risk = 90 · CRITICAL
Narrative base: 57 · Adjusted for: confirmed KIA, 10-country spread, 62% hostile tone
Top verified claim: "More than 300 U.S. troops have been injured in the Iran War, Centcom says." [95% Verified · 576 obs]
Claims Intelligence Engine

Verified facts.
Deduplicated narratives.

v60.8's byte-identical fast path collapses capitalization-only and punctuation-only duplicates. v60.9 question-keyword fallback finds the right monitor when the LLM-generated thematic name lacks geographic anchors. v60.11 escapes literal % in psycopg2 parameterized SQL so the casualty aggregator actually fires.

Each claim carries a Bayesian confidence posterior derived from observation count, source-tier authority, official attribution, and cross-source independence. Status moves through emergence → unverified → contested → confirmed → escalated based on analyst review and propagation analytics.

6,438
Total Claims
3
Confirmed
42
Unverified
34
Source Groups
Claims Intelligence — Extraction + Temporal Tracking
v60.13b
◉ Claims Intelligence — Extraction + Temporal Tracking
Entity Network + AI Analysis

Map the actors.
Trace the fault lines.

4,922 entities and 18,647 weighted connections — states, organizations, people, locations, weapons, policies. Click IRGC and surface 3,090 mentions with first-seen and last-seen timestamps. Iran ↔ Hezbollah weight 2,476. United States ↔ sanctions weight 910.

Ask the AI assistant in plain English: "What are the key fault lines around IRGC?" Get a sourced, weighted analysis citing relationship strengths — not vague summary. The graph and the language model share the same backing data.

4,922
Entities
18,647
Connections
11,131
Iran Mentions
Entity Network Graph
16.8% COVERAGE
◉ Entity Network — IRGC: 3,090 mentions
KIQ + Deep Dive

Ask anything.
Get an analyst-grade product.

Type a Key Intelligence Question in natural language; the platform fans out search across 8 LLM-planned vectors, retrieves verified claims from the dedup engine, fires the casualty aggregator if the question shape demands it, and returns a structured product with BLUF, key judgments, top claims, COAs, intelligence gaps, and risk assessment.

Deep Dive takes the KIQ result as initial_report and expands across analytic dimensions — capabilities and resources, key actors and motivations, recent developments, historical context, competing hypotheses — with source-agreement / source-disagreement analysis and overall analytic confidence.

~130s
KIQ Time
~246s
Deep Dive Time
ICD 203
Standards
AI Network Analysis
SOURCED
◉ AI Network Analysis — Iran ↔ US ↔ Israel
Cross-Monitor Causal Engine

Three statistical models.
One coherent picture.

Iran threats and Ukraine crisis show perfect bidirectional Granger causality with 1-day lag. Ukraine crisis drives military posturing decisions at 0.919 strength. Venezuela's positive delta foreshadows Western Hemisphere instability. None of this comes from analyst intuition — it's measured.

Granger Causality
0.919 str
Ukraine → Military Posturing
Directional driver test with optimal lag selection. Ukraine theater developments are the primary driver of US/NATO force-posture decisions, including the German troop withdrawal.
Hawkes Process
α/β=0.39 contained
Iran Cascade State
Self- and cross-exciting point process model. Subcritical branching ratio indicates current escalation is contained but persistent — narrative volume reproduces but doesn't run away.
Hidden Markov Regime
CRISIS · 40%
Iran Security Threats
Five-state regime classifier (CRISIS / TENSION / ELEVATED / DE-ESCALATION / GUARDED) with state-probability distribution and historical regime trajectory.
Live Operations

Currently tracking.

IRAN SECURITY THREATS
68,925 docs · 4,099 outlets
CRISIS
UKRAINE CRISIS
26,191 docs · 2,504 outlets
CRISIS
MILITARY POSTURING
6,280 docs · 1,141 outlets
CRISIS
VENEZUELA CRISIS
16,507 docs · 1,598 outlets
TENSION
SANCTIONS EVASION
2,296 docs · 755 outlets
DE-ESCALATION
IRAN SECURITY THREATS
68,925 docs · 4,099 outlets
CRISIS
UKRAINE CRISIS
26,191 docs · 2,504 outlets
CRISIS
MILITARY POSTURING
6,280 docs · 1,141 outlets
CRISIS
VENEZUELA CRISIS
16,507 docs · 1,598 outlets
TENSION
SANCTIONS EVASION
2,296 docs · 755 outlets
DE-ESCALATION
Request Early Access
Limited availability. Priority for defense, intelligence, and operational OSINT teams.